The impacts of the cap on the economy are not known. One think tank, the Fraser Institute, suggests that using current emission intensity levels (i.e., the current amount of emissions per barrel of oil), Alberta will cumulatively reduce oil sands production from what it otherwise would have been in the absence of the cap by 3.34 billion barrels between 2025 and 2040, which it calculates has a lost production value of $254.74 billion in 2015 dollars.
Clearly the government must hope that by imposing the cap innovation reduces the emissions intensity of oil sands production and the lost production and lost value will not be as large.
Alan Harvie – Norton Rose Fulbright Canada LLP – November 8 2016.
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